If you’re paying attention to the media commentary, you’re chock full of the knowledge that a) the green shoots of recovery are harbingers of new global hope; b) we are in an extended bear rally; c) the strength of the market is based on our reduced expectations; d) we are approaching another roller-coaster dip, after which, a trough will allow a strong recovery. Take your pick.
Each opinion, every hypothesis, comes buttressed with quantitative and qualitative data. Taxi drivers and waiters talk with us about them. Friends, worrying about 401K losses, nod sagely about the recouping of their lost wealth.
The Greek poet, Constantine Cavafy, wrote in “Waiting For the Barbarians”, that although the anticipated future never materialized, the act of anticipation itself instilled the hope of security. So we too— from any perspective, bearish or bullish— attempt to stabilize our anxiety in the present, attempting to gain our bearings and to assert our former sense of command, deeply injured in recent months. Perhaps if we act as if we know, we can make it so. Sometimes wishful magic extends beyond the boundaries of childhood.
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