Woke up this morning to the radio announcer’s chirp confirming that the Recession was over and that most economists agreed. OK, it won’t be reflected in employment statistics, and there will be a lot of people out of work, but things are good. We’ll see by the Third Quarter.

The S&P is over 900, the Dow stands firm and valuations are as high as they were the day before Lehman died ( a function of those pesky valuations taken with the off-peak prices). My 401K is still 40% off, despite the recent boom in investor confidence. Housing prices continue to plunge (but less precipitously than last month).  And GM is a step closer to Chapter 11.

There might, however, be a few showers this afternoon.

Frankly, I’m confused.  That was one short 2d Great Depression.

I recognize that a function of leadership is in making sense for  followers. Leaders narrate our experience; and sense-making requires  both that we “get” the cues upon which we base our interpretations of reality and that our continued recalibrations of what makes sense conforms to the “sense” we’re given.

Apart from the wish that things will improve, my cues seem pretty consistent with what they’ve been (despite the economists, who have racked up about the same record this year, as the weather forecasters).

Apart from desire, apart from hope, I’d appreciate some sense-making help: what are the cues to look for, in scouring the world for information, that folded together, justify the hope? That confirm the impression, the belief, that the markets currently trumpet?

I remember ancient history, 6 months ago, when GM’s bankruptcy was an impossibility; but Chrysler’s and the slow back and forth of ups and downs, busts and mini-bubbles, has worn us out: GM’s bankruptcy? Of course. We’ve factored it in. No problem. A given.

As I start off the day today, I am confused. The only reliable cue I’ve got is about possible showers. I will bring an umbrella.

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